Viewing archive of Monday, 15 November 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 15/2100Z. Total IMF reached 22
nT at 15/2017Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at
15/1937Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2753 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (16 Nov, 17 Nov) and
quiet levels on day three (18 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 079 Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 080/078/078 90 Day Mean 15 Nov 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 008/012-012/012-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 35% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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