Viewing archive of Monday, 15 November 2021

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2021 Nov 15 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Nov 2021	079	003
16 Nov 2021	079	017
17 Nov 2021	080	022

Bulletin

NOAA region 2894 decayed to an alpha region. The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at only 10%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours. There is a slight chance that it will exceed that threshold again in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 290 and 325 km/s in the past 24 hours. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field near Earth (IMF) varied between about 1 and 6 nT, while its orientation was predominantly towards the Sun. Bz was never below -5 nT. Enhanced solar wind conditions are possible upon the predicted arrival of a high speed stream from a negative polarity extension of the south polar coronal hole, in the second half of November 16 or early on November 17.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K-BEL between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled levels (K-BEL < 4) are expected on November 15 and the first half of November 16. Active to minor storm intervals (K-BEL = 4-5) are possible in the second half of November 16 and on November 17, due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream from a negative polarity extension of the south polar coronal hole.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 024, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Nov 2021

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	078
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	020 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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