Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 January 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 583 km/s at 09/0022Z. Total IMF
reached 26 nT at 08/2358Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-20 nT at 08/2358Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 159 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Jan) and quiet levels on
days two and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jan 102 Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 102/102/105 90 Day Mean 09 Jan 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 006/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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