Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 October 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 373 km/s at 24/2052Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
24/0820Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
24/0831Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 151 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Oct, 26 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (27 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 093 Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 094/095/095 90 Day Mean 24 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 006/005-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Latest forum messages
Filaments and prominences 525AR 13901 110AR 13903 1Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1246Sunspot Latitudes at or near Solar Maximum 76
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |