Viewing archive of Monday, 25 October 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (26 Oct, 27 Oct, 28 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 379 km/s at 24/2124Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
25/1536Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/1341Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 347 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (26 Oct,
27 Oct, 28 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 101 Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 100/100/102 90 Day Mean 25 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 007/005-008/008-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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