Viewing archive of Sunday, 21 November 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 699 km/s at 21/1219Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 21/0337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/1911Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 711 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 079 Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 078/078/080 90 Day Mean 21 Nov 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 009/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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