Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 November 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Nov,
12 Nov, 13 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 469 km/s at 10/1553Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 09/2201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
09/2157Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 09/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1711 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13
Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 088 Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 088/088/086 90 Day Mean 10 Nov 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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