Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 December 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 531 km/s at 07/1054Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 07/0515Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/2310Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 950 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (08 Dec, 09 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (10 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Dec 079 Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 07 Dec 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 006/005-006/005-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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