Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 December 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
21/1144Z from Region 2916 (S18E82). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23 Dec,
24 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 638 km/s at 20/2225Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 20/2106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
21/0049Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 962 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Dec) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Dec 137 Predicted 22 Dec-24 Dec 136/134/134 90 Day Mean 21 Dec 090
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec 013/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 008/008-012/016-016/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 55% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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