Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 December 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/0706Z from Region 2908 (S20W39). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 22/1215Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 22/0104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
22/0230Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1189 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Dec), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (24 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (25 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Dec 140 Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 140/140/138 90 Day Mean 22 Dec 090
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 012/016-016/020-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 65% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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