Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 January 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1/Sf flare observed
at 18/1744Z from Region 2929 (N07W58). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Jan,
20 Jan, 21 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 652 km/s at 18/1310Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 17/2224Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-4 nT at 18/1919Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4360 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jan,
20 Jan, 21 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 115 Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 008/008-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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