Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 January 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (05 Jan, 06
Jan) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on
day three (07 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 531 km/s at 03/2356Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 03/2313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
04/0209Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 866 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07
Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 086 Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 085/085/090 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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