Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 January 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Jan 04 1236 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Jan 2022	080	005
05 Jan 2022	077	005
06 Jan 2022	077	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2916 (Catania group 97) has now rotated over the west limb. A new small region of flux emergence has shown some spot development (Catania group 1, S32E60). Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with C-class flares possible, mainly from NOAA AR 2916 while it remains just beyond the west solar limb.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux remained under the 1000 pfu threshold but is expected to increase and is likely to just cross this threshold in the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

The Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 540 to 430 km/s. The total magnetic field magnitude ranged between 4 and 7 nT, with a variable Bz component. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to continue to gradually decline and to reflect a slow solar wind regime over the next 48 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and local K Belgium 1-3) and are expected to be quiet to unsettled over the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 011, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Jan 2022

Wolf number Catania	025
10cm solar flux	084
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	015
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	012 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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