Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 January 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (23 Jan) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 22/0003Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 21/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
21/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4044 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (23 Jan, 24 Jan) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jan 095 Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 093/089/089 90 Day Mean 22 Jan 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 010/012-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 50% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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