Viewing archive of Friday, 18 February 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (19 Feb) and likely to be
low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (20
Feb, 21 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 356 km/s at 17/2203Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
18/1806Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
18/1726Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4650 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Feb), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (20 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three
(21 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Feb 093 Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 093/096/102 90 Day Mean 18 Feb 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 009/010-011/018-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 65% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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