Viewing archive of Friday, 18 February 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Feb 18 1233 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
18 Feb 2022	094	004
19 Feb 2022	092	006
20 Feb 2022	098	019

Bulletin

Solar activity was at low levels. Catania group 38 (NOAA region 2950) was most active and produced a C1 flare, peaking at 20:51UT. Catania group 37 (NOAA region 2948) was stable but inactive. Catania group 33 (NOAA region 2946) displayed flux emergence and produced B-level flaring activity. The remaining regions: Catania group 32 (NOAA region 2943), Catania group 39 (NOAA region 2949) and Catania group 40 (NOAA region 2951) have decayed into plage regions. A new region, located in the south-east quadrant, has been numbered over the period as Catania group 40 (NOAA region 2952), but it is so far inactive. Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a low chance for C-class flares.

A dimming was associated with the C1 flare at 20:51UT but no related Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been observed. A CME observed from 21:42 in LASCO-C2 data to the north-west is determined to be back-sided and will not impact Earth.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly enhanced over the past 24 hours, but was far below the 10pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert threshold. The electron flux is expected to gradually decrease over the next days but it is expected that the threshold will be exceeded again today. The 24 hour electron fluence was at nominal to moderate levels and is expected to be at nominal levels during the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters reflected a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged between 315 and 400 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 and 8 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to continue to reflect a slow solar wind regime on Feb 18. The solar wind speed is then expected to become enhanced from late on Feb 19 in response to the arrival of the high-speed stream associated with the extension to the southern polar coronal hole, which began to traverse the central meridian on Feb 16.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (NOAA Kp 0-1 and local K Belgium 0-2). Quiet conditions with isolated unsettled intervals are expected on Feb 18 and 19. Active conditions are expected from Feb 20.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 040, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 17 Feb 2022

Wolf number Catania	112
10cm solar flux	097
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	086 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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