Viewing archive of Friday, 28 January 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
28/1735Z from Region 2936 (N17E23). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Jan,
30 Jan, 31 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 543 km/s at 28/0003Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 28/2009Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
28/2030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 493 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (30 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (31 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 113 Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 114/118/118 90 Day Mean 28 Jan 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 010/012-009/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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