Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 January 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
29/1655Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 29/1044Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 29/0158Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
28/2119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 505 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Jan), quiet levels on day
two (31 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Feb).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 125 Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 128/130/125 90 Day Mean 29 Jan 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 009/010-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 20% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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