Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 February 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
01/1311Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 524 km/s at 01/2057Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
01/0102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
01/1112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2203 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (02 Feb), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (03 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (04
Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 129 Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 01 Feb 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 027/045-012/015-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 85% | 40% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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