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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
01/2236Z from Region 2939 (S15E47). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 01/2221Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 01/2259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
01/2210Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1416 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (03 Feb, 05
Feb) and quiet levels on day two (04 Feb). Protons have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05
Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 128 Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 02 Feb 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 009/010-006/006-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 15% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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