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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
08/2227Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 506 km/s at 09/1338Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5129 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (10 Mar, 11 Mar) and
quiet levels on day three (12 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Mar 115 Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 115/114/112 90 Day Mean 09 Mar 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 009/012-011/012-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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