Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 April 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/0758Z from Region 2978 (S17W37). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Apr,
07 Apr, 08 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 483 km/s at 05/0645Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
05/1114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
05/0638Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2903 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (06 Apr, 07
Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 122 Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 124/122/120 90 Day Mean 05 Apr 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 014/020-019/025-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 70% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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