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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
11/0521Z from Region 2987 (S31W06). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (12 Apr) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 586 km/s at 11/0412Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 11/0252Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/0549Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 995 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Apr, 13 Apr) and unsettled
to major storm levels on day three (14 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 099 Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 098/095/095 90 Day Mean 11 Apr 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 018/029 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 014/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 005/005-006/005-023/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 79% |
All times in UTC
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