Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 April 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
12/0649Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (13 Apr, 14
Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on
day three (15 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 522 km/s at 12/1515Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 12/1204Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
12/1132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1643 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Apr), unsettled to major
storm levels on day two (14 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (15 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Apr 096 Predicted 13 Apr-15 Apr 098/098/102 90 Day Mean 12 Apr 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr 013/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 012/012-023/035-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 40% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 25% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 79% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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