Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 April 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/1456Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 654 km/s at 16/0017Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 16/0158Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at
15/2233Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1233 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (17 Apr, 18 Apr) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Apr 122 Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 16 Apr 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 014/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 011/012-011/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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