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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
17/0334Z from Region 2994 (N13E66). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Apr, 19
Apr, 20 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 593 km/s at 16/2256Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 17/2038Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
17/1354Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2314 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (19 Apr, 20 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Apr to 20 Apr
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Apr 135 Predicted 18 Apr-20 Apr 135/130/130 90 Day Mean 17 Apr 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Apr 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 011/012-009/010-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr to 20 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
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| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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