Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 April 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Apr 23 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
23 Apr 2022	160	007
24 Apr 2022	157	009
25 Apr 2022	155	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was moderate. An M flare of magnitude M3.4 peaked at 13:25 UT from Catania sunspot group 81 (NOAA active region 2993). There is still emergence of opposite polarity flux near the leading spot of Catania sunspot group 81 (NOAA active region 2993) and the region remains a very likely source of strong flaring. Catania sunspot group 82 (NOAA active region 2994) simplified as it no longer displays the mixed polarities in the intermediate section. The other regions on disc are comparatively insignificant. Flares at M level are likely with still also a chance for an X flare.

The M flare was associated with a Type II radio burst, but coronagraph images do not display any signs of an associated CME. No Earth directed CMEs have been identified in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. There is a risk of a proton event as Catania sunspot groups 81 and 82 (NOAA AR 2993 and 2994) are now in the western hemisphere. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels the following days.

The Solar wind speed was slightly elevated in the 425-500 km/s range with a slow increasing trend. The magnetic field magnitude remained stable at 5nT. The magnetic field orientation indicates connection to a positive polarity sector. Solar wind speed is expected to remain just slowly enhanced over the next days.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local K Belgium 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet with isolated unsettled periods.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 123, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 22 Apr 2022

Wolf number Catania	139
10cm solar flux	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	104 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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