Viewing archive of Friday, 22 April 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Apr 22 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Apr 2022	160	006
23 Apr 2022	160	007
24 Apr 2022	155	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was moderate. All flaring activity was from Catania sunspot groups 81 and 82 (NOAA active region 2993 and 2994) with the strongest flare being just an M1.1 flare peaking at 5:14 UT. Catania sunspot groups 81 and 82 (NOAA active region 2993 and 2994) remain complex groups with beta-gamma configuration of their photospheric magnetic field. Mixed polarity fields are primarily around the leading spot of Catania group 81 (NOAA active region 2993) and in the intermediate section of Catania group 82 (NOAA active region 2994). These regions remain the dominant source for flaring over the next days. Flares at M level are likely with also a very significant chance for X flares.

There were no Earth directed CMEs observed in coronagraph images.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. There is an increasing risk of a proton event as Catania sunspot groups 81 and 82 (NOAA AR 2993 and 2994) are rotating towards the west. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels the following days.

Slightly increasing but still slow solar wind conditions were recorded. Solar wind speed increased from 400 km/s to around 475 km/s. The magnetic field magnitude reached a high of 10nT at the start of the period, but then decreased to a background value of 5nT. The Bz component was variable and the magnetic field orientation indicates connection to a positive polarity sector. Slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next days.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 0-3 and local K Belgium 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet with isolated unsettled periods.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 105, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Apr 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	164
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	103 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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