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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
22/1325Z from Region 2993 (N19W04). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24
Apr, 25 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 22/1439Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 21/2202Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/0812Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 345 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 163 Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 160/160/160 90 Day Mean 22 Apr 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 010/012-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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