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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
21/0159Z from Region 2993 (N22E08). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Apr, 23
Apr, 24 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 479 km/s at 21/1859Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 21/1130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
21/1139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1365 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Apr), quiet to active levels on day
two (23 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Apr to 24 Apr
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Apr 164 Predicted 22 Apr-24 Apr 160/160/160 90 Day Mean 21 Apr 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Apr 009/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Apr 010/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr 006/005-010/012-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Apr to 24 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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