Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 April 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Apr 21 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
21 Apr 2022	155	009
22 Apr 2022	155	010
23 Apr 2022	155	007

Bulletin

Soar flaring conditions were moderate. Flaring was from the complex regions in the northeast, Catania sunspot groups 81 and 82 (NOAA active region 2993 and 2994), including 2 M flares with the strongest an M9.6 flare peaking at 1:59 UT from Catania 81 (NOAA AR 2993). Catania sunspot groups 81 and 82 (NOAA active region 2993 and 2994) are now rotating towards the central meridian and remain complex groups with beta- gamma configuration of their photospheric magnetic field. Mixed polarity fields are primarily around the leading spot of Catania group 81 (NOAA active region 2993) and in the intermediate section of Catania group 82 (NOAA active region 2994). They remain the dominant source for flaring over the next days. Flares at M level are likely with also a very significant chance for X flares.

There were no Earth directed CMEs observed in coronagraph images.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. There is an increasing risk of a proton event as Catania sunspot groups 81 and 82 (NOAA AR 2993 and 2994) are rotating towards the west. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached again above the 1000 pfu alert threshold at the diurnal maximum, but took a dip around midnight. The 24h electron fluence reached moderate levels but is now expected to be at normal levels the following days.

Solar wind speed has been stable at just above 400 km/s with just a slow increasing trend. The magnetic field magnitude was between 5-10nT with a general increasing trend. The magnetic field orientation was variable. Essentially slow Solar wind conditions are expected over the next days.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and local K Belgium 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 102, based on 20 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Apr 2022

Wolf number Catania	139
10cm solar flux	160
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	092 - Based on 32 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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