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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
20/0357Z from a Region beyond the SW limb. There are currently 4
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Apr, 22
Apr, 23 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 477 km/s at 19/2306Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 20/1725Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
20/2046Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2029 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Apr, 22 Apr) and quiet to
active levels on day three (23 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Apr 160 Predicted 21 Apr-23 Apr 160/160/160 90 Day Mean 20 Apr 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Apr 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr 006/005-006/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| Last 30 days | 156.1 +4.7 |