Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 May 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 May 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
17/1145Z from Region 3010 (S15E10). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (18 May, 19 May, 20 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 617 km/s at 17/1212Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 17/0636Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
17/0645Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 256 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 May) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (19 May, 20 May).
III. Event Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 May 171 Predicted 18 May-20 May 170/170/170 90 Day Mean 17 May 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 009/008-010/014-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 40% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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