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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 May 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
16/1327Z from Region 3017 (N14E66). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 587 km/s at 16/1505Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 16/1209Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
16/0902Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (17 May, 19
May) and quiet levels on day two (18 May).
III. Event Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 162 Predicted 17 May-19 May 162/160/160 90 Day Mean 16 May 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 008/008-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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