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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jun 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
11/2227Z from Region 3030 (N20E52). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Jun,
14 Jun, 15 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 12/1413Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 12/1201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
12/1012Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 127 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 Jun, 14 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (15 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jun 121 Predicted 13 Jun-15 Jun 120/120/125 90 Day Mean 12 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun 010/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 005/008-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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