Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 July 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
09/1348Z from Region 3047 (S20W87). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 410 km/s at 08/2110Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 08/2214Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/1251Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 09/1805Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Jul), quiet to active levels on day
two (11 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 137 Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 138/140/135 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 014/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 006/008-013/008-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 50% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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