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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 09/2245Z from Region 3052 (N15W01). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 10/0835Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 10/1100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 10/1114Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 09/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 153 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (12 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (13 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Jul 153
  Predicted   11 Jul-13 Jul 160/155/145
  90 Day Mean        10 Jul 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Jul  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul  008/008-013/015-020/028

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%35%
Minor storm10%20%30%
Major-severe storm01%05%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%05%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm35%60%70%

All times in UTC

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