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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jun 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
13/0407Z from Region 3032 (N21E33). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 566 km/s at 13/0720Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 13/0246Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 13/0128Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 177 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Jun), active to minor
storm levels on day two (15 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (16 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
| Class M | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 132 Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 132/132/132 90 Day Mean 13 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 012/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 009/012-027/040-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 65% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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