Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 June 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jun 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
14/1420Z from Region 3031 (S27W04). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun, 17 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 526 km/s at 14/0835Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
14/0617Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
14/0519Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 274 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (15 Jun), unsettled to
active levels on day two (16 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (17 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun, 17 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| Class M | 45% | 40% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 146 Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 146/146/144 90 Day Mean 14 Jun 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 014/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 027/040-014/018-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 50% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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