Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 June 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jun 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
15/0440Z from Region 3036 (S12W69). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (16 Jun, 17 Jun) and likely to be low with a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (18 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 624 km/s at 15/0556Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 15/0443Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 15/0443Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 240 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Jun, 18 Jun). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Jun,
17 Jun, 18 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 140 Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 140/138/138 90 Day Mean 15 Jun 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 010/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 015/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 011/014-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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