Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 June 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jun 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/0353Z from Region 3031 (S25W30). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (17 Jun, 18 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (19 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 622 km/s at 16/2058Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 16/2031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
16/1203Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 460 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Jun, 18 Jun)
and quiet levels on day three (19 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (17 Jun, 18
Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
| Class M | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jun 147 Predicted 17 Jun-19 Jun 146/146/144 90 Day Mean 16 Jun 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun 018/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 008/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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