Viewing archive of Friday, 17 June 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jun 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
17/1123Z from Region 3030 (N17W33). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun,
20 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 646 km/s at 17/1933Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 16/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
17/0427Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 937 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
| Class M | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jun 149 Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 148/146/142 90 Day Mean 17 Jun 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 014/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 007/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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