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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 May 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
20/2212Z from Region 3019 (N11E55). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 May, 23 May,
24 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 633 km/s at 20/2314Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 20/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
20/2128Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 931 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (23 May, 24 May). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (22 May, 23 May, 24 May).
III. Event Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 May 167 Predicted 22 May-24 May 162/165/163 90 Day Mean 21 May 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 May 012/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 May 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 007/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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