Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 May 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 May 21 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
21 May 2022	165	011
22 May 2022	160	008
23 May 2022	155	006

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was low but frequent during the last 24 hours, with several C-class flares detected. NOAA plage 3011 produced the most flares, while the brightest flare was a C8 originating from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3019 (magnetic type Alpha, Catania group 18). NOAA AR 3014 (magnetic type Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania group 14) has lost some of its magnetic complexity and only produced a C3 flare in the last 24 hours. C-class flare activity is highly expected with a fair chance of an isolated M-class flare in the next 24 hours.

Two Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were automatically detected by CACTus on 20 May at 12:24 and 23:36 UT. They were associated with two flares that erupted from NOAA plage 3011 (located at the North-West of the solar disk) and the CME are possibly geo-effective. Their speeds are estimated to be 800 and 700 km/s respectively and they are expected to arrive on Earth on 23 May.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions (as measured by the DSCOVR and ACE satellites) continue to be typical of the slow SW regime, but with untypically high electron speed. The SW speed varied between 490 and 610 km/s in the last 24 hours. During the same period the total magnetic field was very low with values between 1 and 7 nT, while its Bz component varied between -7 and 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly positive (directed away from the Sun) during the last 24 hours. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain in the same regime in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally active (NOAA Kp and K Dourbes 2-4) in the last 24 hours.They are expected to become moderate during the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 152, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 20 May 2022

Wolf number Catania	172
10cm solar flux	166
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	137 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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