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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
24/0412Z from Region 2993 (N19W32). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (25 Apr, 26 Apr, 27 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 541 km/s at 24/0121Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 24/2038Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
23/2123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 358 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Apr 159 Predicted 25 Apr-27 Apr 160/160/160 90 Day Mean 24 Apr 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr 012/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 009/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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