Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 May 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 May 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
19/0719Z from Region 3017 (N13E27). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 563 km/s at 19/1719Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 19/1319Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
19/1943Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 201 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (21 May, 22 May).
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| Class M | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 173 Predicted 20 May-22 May 172/170/170 90 Day Mean 19 May 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 010/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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