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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 12/0328Z from Region 3056 (S16E37). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 12/1749Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 12/0741Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 12/0652Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 320 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (14 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
Class M40%40%40%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Jul 165
  Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul 165/165/165
  90 Day Mean        12 Jul 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  010/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Jul  017/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  020/024-011/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm30%15%10%
Major-severe storm15%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%25%
Major-severe storm70%50%35%

All times in UTC

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