Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 July 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
12/0328Z from Region 3056 (S16E37). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 12/1749Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 12/0741Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 12/0652Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 320 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (14 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (15 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jul 165 Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 017/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 020/024-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 50% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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