Viewing archive of Friday, 8 July 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
08/1908Z from Region 3053 (N15E35). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Jul, 10 Jul, 11 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 436 km/s at 08/0928Z. Total IMF
reached 22 nT at 08/0120Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 07/2151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 149 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 130 Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 132/132/130 90 Day Mean 08 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 015/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 017/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 009/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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