Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 April 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 117 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
27/1454Z from Region 2996 (N25W25). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (28 Apr, 29 Apr) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(30 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 515 km/s at 27/1427Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 27/1300Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 27/1209Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 771 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (28 Apr, 30 Apr)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (29 Apr). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and
two (28 Apr, 29 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Apr 142 Predicted 28 Apr-30 Apr 140/125/110 90 Day Mean 27 Apr 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Apr 014/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 007/008-013/018-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 60% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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