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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 27 1915 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
26/1624Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (27 Apr, 28 Apr, 29 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 559 km/s at 26/0144Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
26/0904Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/1123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 591 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 Apr, 28 Apr) and unsettled
to minor storm levels on day three (29 Apr). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (27 Apr, 28
Apr, 29 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Apr 150 Predicted 27 Apr-29 Apr 148/145/130 90 Day Mean 26 Apr 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Apr 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr 005/005-005/005-013/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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